If you want to win consistently with guarantees, then what you need is a betting formula that delivers. There are a few of them out there, and one of the leading methods is arbitrage betting. When you find those bets with pricing inconsistencies, the next thing you need is a formula, and in this post today, we will talk about the arbitrage betting formula. Arbitrage betting is simply a way to place bets on sports without any risk. A lot of people hear “risk-free” and think it must be some sort of scam, like there’s a catch or it’s not really going to work out as promised. However, I’m telling you that is not the case with arbitrage. It’s a legit method that can indeed make you money by betting on sports. I’m going to explain everything you need to know about it, with a focus on the formula.
What is Arbitrage Betting?
Arbitrage betting is genuinely a way to make money from sports betting without risking a loss. There’s absolutely no chance of losing money with arbitrage betting, and that’s a fact. The idea behind arbitrage is to place bets on all possible outcomes of a game, but at different bookmakers who offer different odds. This difference in odds means you can secure a profit regardless of the outcome. You can bet on both the over and under or on both teams to win, but the main thing is that the odds make sure you end up making money. It sounds unbelievable, like it’s some trick, but arbitrage betting is real.
The way I like to explain arbitrage betting in simple terms, so it’s easier for everyone to understand, is that it’s not just something you find in sports betting. Arbitrage opportunities are everywhere in the real world. It all comes down to supply and demand, and the buying and selling of things. For instance, let’s talk about selling baseball cards. Imagine you have a really good Aaron Judge rookie card, or maybe you want to buy one. So, there’s this seller—let’s call them Aeller A—who’s ready to sell this card for $200. You think to yourself, “Okay, I can buy this Aaron Judge baseball card for $200.” Then, while checking out social media, like Twitter, or chatting with friends, you discover someone else who’s willing to pay $250 for the same baseball card. When you stop and think about it, that’s a clear profit of $50 right there. You buy it from Seller A for $200, sell it to this other person—let’s call them Seller B—for $250, and just like that, you have made a $50 profit. This is what we call arbitrage in the market. So, arbitrage is just a situation where what people want and what’s available don’t match up perfectly, and you find a chance to buy something at a lower price and then sell it at a higher price.
An example from the world of sports betting
So, let’s say we have a soccer game between Real Madrid and Liverpool, and you have two options: one bet is for more than 9 and a half corners, and the other is for less than 9 and a half corners. Since you can’t have half a corner in a game, the outcome will either be 10 or more corners or 9 or fewer. This means one of your bets is guaranteed to win. The odds are set up so that you can bet on both outcomes and still make a profit.
For example, if you bet on more than 9 and a half corners with one bookmaker at certain odds, you may risk $108 to win $100. Then, betting on fewer than 9 and a half corners with another bookmaker at different odds, you could find a small difference in the odds that makes your profit, no matter the outcome. This difference is what makes arbitrage betting work. The percentage? That is your return on investment.
So, if you use an arbitrage betting formula calculator, it’s going to show you all the math for the whole situation. Let’s say you want to bet $200 on the over 9 and a half at -108 odds at Bet365. Your arbitrage betting calculator can suggest that in this case, you should place $176.69 on the under 9 and a half, and one of these bets is going to win; there’s no way both can lose, with +118 odds at FanDuel. In either case, your payout is going to be $385.19 cents. No matter which one wins, that’s what you’ll get. Now, if you consider your bet, $200 on the over and $176.69 on the under, you are putting down a total of $376.69, and making a sure profit. It doesn’t matter which side wins; you are getting a payout of $385.19. So, that’s a profit of $8.49 on this deal, and there’s absolutely no situation where you won’t make this $8.49 profit.
Arbitrage Betting Formula
The principle of arbitrage betting is grounded in the inefficiencies in the betting markets. So, you see, different bookmakers come up with different opinions and analyses of the outcome of sports, which leads to odd variations. These differences, although sometimes slight, are the inconsistencies that you exploit as an arbitrage bettor.
Generally, if you understand the concept of implied probability, then you will understand arbitrage because this is its center. The odds in sports betting reflect the possibility of a particular outcome. The formula for calculating implied probability from decimal odds is:
Implied Probability Percentage (divide 1 by the decimal odds), multiplied by 100.
This sports arbitrage betting formula will help you determine how much to wager on each outcome for profit.
Let’s apply this arbitrage betting concept to an EPL (English Premier League) match between Chelsea and Manchester United. Let’s say that two bookmakers, Bet365 and BetVictor, offer differing odds on the outcomes of this match.
- Bet365: 2.20 on Chelsea to win.
- BetVictor: 2.30 on Manchester United to win.
No draw option is considered for this example so that we can simplify this calculation.
Calculate Implied Probabilities
For Chelsea to win:
Implied Probability = 1/2.20 x 100 = 0.4545 or 45.45%
For Manchester United to win:
Implied Probability = 1/12.30 x 100 = 0.4348 or 43.48%
Identify an Arbitrage Betting Opportunity
We have to determine if these odds can give us an arbitrage opportunity, so we calculate the arbitrage percentage as follows:
Arbitrage % = (1/Odds for Chelsea + 1/Odds for Manchester United) × 100
With the numbers, we will have something like:
Arbitrage % = (1/12.20 + 1/12.30) × 100= (0.4545 + 0.4348) × 100 = 88.93%
Since our arbitrage percentage is below 100%, we have an arbitrage opportunity. Therefore, a profit is guaranteed.
Calculate the Bets
Let’s say a total investment of $1,000. The distribution of bets would be as follows to ensure a profit regardless of the match outcome:
For Chelsea (at Bet365):
\text{Bet on Chelsea} = (\frac{1,000}{2.20}) \times 0.8893 = $404.23
For Manchester United (at BetVictor):
\text{Bet on Manchester United} = (\frac{1,000}{2.30}) \times 0.8893 = $386.65
The outcome will be that if Chelsea wins, the payout is 404.23 \times 2.20 = $889.31, but if Manchester United wins, the payout is 386.65 \times 2.30 = $889.30. In either scenario, if you subtract the total investment of $790.88 from the payout, you will see the profit. This is the sports arbitrage betting formula that guarantees your winnings.
Arbitrage Betting Tips
If you are looking at successful arbitrage with your arbitrage betting formula, then follow these tips to stay ahead.
Move Fast
You have to move and make decisions very fast. The chance to make a profit from differences in sports betting odds won’t stick around forever. Sometimes, you’ll notice a mismatch in the odds offered by sportsbooks, and when you do, remember that the sportsbook may adjust these odds once they catch on. So, act very fast once you spot an arbitrage betting opportunity. If you plan to use multiple sportsbooks, let’s say 10 of them, you need to have them all open and logged in to place your bet.
Keep All Your Bets Running
You should have the bet ready to go on both sportsbooks, right up to the point where you are about to hit enter to place the bet. You’ll want to have both bets ready, check that the odds haven’t shifted, and then place your bets at virtually the same time to make sure the odds don’t change mid-process. This idea is to set up both bets simultaneously so you can hit enter at the same time.
Try to Win Only One Unit Per Day
Arbitrage betting is about picking a profit target you want to hit every day, and then figuring out how much you need to arbitrage to reach that goal. For instance, if you think $100 is too ambitious because you are only making a 2% profit on average, you’d need to find 50 arbitrage opportunities daily. This, of course, depends on how much money you can invest. Try to win one unit a day and no more, especially in arbitrage betting. Simply put, one unit is equal to 1% of your total betting funds. So, if your bankroll is $1,000, one unit would be $10. So, if you win just one unit daily, this means you are building a buffer of 30 units per month in 30 days. This strategy will give you a 7-unit buffer each week, so you get to start off on a positive note. Meanwhile, I wrote an extensive article about how to make money betting on football, so make sure you read that article.
Why Do We Have Arbitrage Betting in Sports in the First Place?
Well, consider each sportsbook as its own unique money market. They each have their own methods for setting odds. For instance, FanDuel could use one method different from what Bet365 uses. Now, these companies operate independently. As such, there are times when their odds are different, and this creates opportunities for arbitrage. Not every sportsbook will price their odds perfectly. A lot of the time, the way odds are set is based on the flow of money, i.e., who is betting on what.
It’s similar to the financial markets, where the value of stocks goes up or down based on buying and selling activities. Of course, there are external factors that can affect stock prices, including how a company is performing or the overall economic environment. But a big part of this story is simply the dynamics of buying and selling. The same principle applies to sports betting. While external factors such as injuries can affect the odds, they primarily change because of where the money is moving.
So, Bet365 and FanDuel have ended up with different amounts of money because bets have been placed differently on the over and the under. FanDuel has set the price for the under at +118. This plus money indicates a win chance of less than 50%, and it shows that not many people are betting on the under with FanDuel. FanDuel tries to balance the equation by making it cheaper to bet on the under so that they can achieve a 50-50 payout balance. The idea is for a sportsbook to have an equal payout on both sides, but FanDuel has seen more bets on the over, which leads to a pricing opportunity for the under.
On the other hand, Bet365 has the ‘under’ priced at -108. This is nearly even money—not exactly +100, but close. Bet365 is experiencing a lot of bets on the under, and it’s creating a chance for the over to be mispriced. This situation is what creates arbitrage opportunities in sports betting. The goal for sportsbooks is to have a 50% payout on each side, whether it’s over or under, or one team covering the spread against another. They adjust their odds to encourage betting on the less popular side. If a sportsbook has mispriced odds and you find them, you can take advantage of an arbitrage opportunity. That’s when you find a chance to make a profit, regardless of the outcome.
So, real-life betting arbitrage opportunities are real and not scams. They are genuinely a risk-free method for profit. However, the profit margins aren’t always very large.
Why Don’t Everyone Do Arbitrage Bets?
Arbitrage betting is totally risk-free, and there’s no way you are losing money, but then, why isn’t everyone doing it? There are two major reasons. First, your bankroll. You need a big bankroll to see any significant profits, and not everyone has that kind of cash to throw around. In arbitrage betting, you are placing bets on both outcomes, so the amount of money you put in is higher because you are covering both sides.
The way people approach arbitrage betting is by using it to add to their regular sports betting on normal, non-arbitrage chances. They think, okay, if I can make $100 a day from arbitrage, then I’m starting every day with a $100 extra, no matter what. This gives them a bit of a safety net for times when things don’t go as planned and they end up having a few bad days. Arbitrage is a strategy that softens the blow of those losses and reduces the effect of unpredictability on your sports betting.
The second point is the issue of limits. Sportsbooks will cap how much you can bet. Some sportsbooks are more lenient and will allow you to bet thousands without restrictions, while others might cap you at less than a hundred. This affects arbitrage betting because if you cannot bet as much as you’d like, your profits are also capped.
Conclusion
Our focus was on the arbitrage betting formula, and we achieved this using an EPL game between Chelsea and Manchester United. This post should help you decide if arbitrage is worth it for you or not. Arbitrage betting is a no-risk method to place bets on sports by wagering on all possible outcomes for profit. You could always aim for a profit of one unit each day, with arbitrage as a safety net for any days that fail to go as planned. Arbitrage opportunities emerge due to differences in the sports betting market, and you should take advantage of them to make some money. It will not end unless sportsbooks decide to merge their platforms. And as long as they run independent systems, there will always be inconsistencies in their lines that create opportunities for arbitrage.
