The secret to making money from sports betting? That is ‘value betting’, as long as you can find them. You won’t win every single bet, but if you keep betting on odds that are better than the real chances, you’ll end up making money over time. However, it isn’t easy to find value bets. First of all, what is a value bet in sports betting? This is something we will answer today. So, aside from the meaning, we also talk in broad terms about how to find them. We will be using a specific example to spot a value bet—a strategy I’ve been using in the last few months. Even though there are days when things don’t go as planned and other days when they go really well. This strategy is profitable in the long run.
You could also use betting models to predict the odds of a game and then compare those predicted odds to the actual odds to find any differences. But we don’t live in a perfect world. Models work, but there are just too many variables and uncertainties to fully depend on them. Now, unless you are skilled in modeling and statistics, it’s possible that any model you use is already factored into the market by people who know more than you do. So, when I’m looking for value in the betting markets, I rely less on trying to precisely calculate odds with a model and more on using my own understanding of football and the betting market to spot when the odds might not be set right. The idea is to find mispricings by looking at the odds of a game and comparing them to what the odds really should be for such a game. Then, figure out what the true odds are and what advantage you could get from this sports bet.
What is a Value Bet in Sports Betting?
Consider flipping a coin where you can guess heads or tails. Normally, the chances for each side are even, meaning the odds are 2.0, showing a 50% chance to land on either side. Now, if you find a chance to bet on this coin flip at odds better than 2.0, that’s what you call a value bet.
In sports betting, any news that affects the game can shift the odds. Let’s take a football game between Spain and Argentina as an example. At first, the odds of Spain winning were set at 1.8. Then, just an hour before the game starts, it’s announced that all the Spanish players are sick with the flu. Some betting sites will quickly adjust their odds from 1.8 down to 1.3, but others may just be slower to catch on. If you spot a chance to bet on Argentina at the old odds of 1.8 with those slower sites, while the true odds should now be 1.3, you found a value bet.
I also want to point out that value betting tends to be more profitable compared to arbitrage betting, also known as sure betting. With arbitrage betting, you are playing it safe. Let’s consider a coin toss where you can get odds of 2.10 on heads and 1.95 on tails. Arbitrage bettors would go for the 1.95 option, even though it’s less than the fair odds of 2. It’s similar to the concept of drop shipping in business. People avoid taking risks; they don’t want to invest in inventory or take on much responsibility. This method avoids risk but leads to smaller profits; it’s restrictive. Usually, you end up giving back some of the value, just as I’ve described. Arbitrage betting requires a ton of effort because you have to cover both outcomes of an event.
How to Find Value Bets
So, how do you find this value bet? Let me hold you by the hands and walk you through step by step.
1. Get Multiple Betting Accounts
First, you’ll need multiple sportsbooks. I emphasized this in my detailed guide about becoming a successful sports gambler. You could start with at least 8 to 10 betting accounts. Anything less, and it’s working against yourself. You need plenty of chances. Don’t forget that we all live in different countries with different networks and connections. If you reside in a place with a specific market, you’ll need to research which bookmakers are accessible to you.
Now, while there may be a hundred bookmakers listed there, there are a thousand more not shown. So, you need to find the bookmakers that fit what you want. Start with those offering the highest payouts—the ones that take the least commission, so you receive the most return.
Now, about finding value bets, it’s simple. We rely on betting exchanges and sharp Asian bookmakers such as Pinnacle. We use these as our reference for value because betting exchanges are a market; they welcome winning customers. This makes the market efficient. And then there’s Pinnacle and other Asian bookmakers. They operate similarly by not banning winning players. Instead, they use these players to create efficient betting lines. On the other hand, bookmakers such as Bet365, William Hill, Betfred, and others, don’t welcome winners; they’ll restrict or ban them. I have discussed this point a lot more in my article about earning a living through sports betting.
So, in value betting, we look at the odds from these softer bookmakers and compare them to the odds at betting exchanges and Pinnacle to spot the value offered by the softer ones.
2. Odds Assessment
For this explanation, we will use a Champions League football match between Frankfurt and Napoli as an example. At the end of this post, you will understand how value betting works and why we pick Napoli with odds of 2.26.
The first thing is to assess the odds and look for call reference games. In the beginning, while hunting for value bets, you can immediately go to Betfair to check out the odds for thousands of upcoming matches. If you have been doing this for quite some time, you will quickly become good at finding when football odds seem a bit off and you can get the hang of this. It doesn’t take long before you start noticing suspicious odds as you scroll through the day’s matches. This doesn’t mean that every time you spot what you think is a mispriced odd, you should rush to place a bet on it. That would be reckless. The better thing to do is take a closer look at the situation, and only after a thorough analysis. If it still seems like there’s value in the bet, then you can release your bankroll.
In a football game between Frankfurt and Napoli, I was immediately drawn to the odds for Napoli to win at 2.26. It seemed too high. I considered Napoli a good bet and then used reference games to find mispricing. You can use previous Premier League matches (this is a popular league) to find reference games. A reference game is a previous match you believe had accurate or efficient odds. Use these reference games to compare with whatever matches you consider betting on in different leagues and competitions worldwide.
It sounds a bit odd, right? Now, in football, there are only so many different kinds of matches that can take place. For example, you might have the team leading the league playing against one that’s trying to avoid relegation, two teams from the top half of the table clashing, or a match where both teams are struggling to stay in the league. When you really get into it, you realize there are quite a few possible match scenarios, but still, the variety is finite. After watching loads of football games, you begin to recognize the patterns in betting odds for these matches, getting a sense of what the odds typically look like for each kind of game.
3. Pick Out Reference Games
When it comes to picking out reference games to help with predictions and a value bet in sports betting, try to stick to the league you know inside out. For me, that’s the Premier League because I feel confident using it as a benchmark for understanding leagues and competitions elsewhere, even those I’m not too familiar with. Sure, I know quite a bit about Napoli and a bit about Frankfurt, but I wouldn’t call myself an expert. However, I can still use what I know from the Premier League to gauge the game between Frankfurt and Napoli.
Well, Napoli’s odds were set between 2.2 and 2.3. Even though it’s a different league, we can immediately start comparing these odds to what they would mean if this match were in the Premier League. This says something about the quality difference between the two teams, and what kind of match to expect. You need a reference for your target game to find previous football games. Now, go to an odds compilation website to look up previous games where the away team was favored to win with odds between 2.2 and 2.3, just like in the Napoli scenario.
Let’s use, as an example, Manchester City playing against Arsenal. With your knowledge of the EPL and the quality of these teams at the time these games were played, I can say that odds of 2.2 or 2.3 usually appear in very close games, where the favorite is expected to win by a small margin. The match between Arsenal and Manchester City is a battle between two tactically advanced teams. In the cases of West Ham vs. Chelsea and Palace vs. Spurs, it looks like a strong team on paper playing against a weaker team. However, in reality, it’s more about a team that’s been inconsistent, facing a tough away game against a team that might not be as skilled but is highly motivated to earn points.
When you search for reference games, try to find as many as possible because you need to determine accurate odds. With many games within the relevant odds range, the likelihood that all these games had inaccurate odds is very slim.
Now, from the reference games you have collected, you can form an opinion on whether it was reasonable for Napoli to have the odds they did for their game. From my own analysis using these games, I’m seeing an away favorite with odds between 2.2 and 2.3. This shows a team that’s technically superior to their opponent but has significant doubts about their chances of winning. Now, I need to confirm or refute whether Napoli fits this scenario. If, after analysis, you find that Napoli was either a strong team or inconsistent in form, or if both Napoli and Frankfurt were in good form, then you would conclude that this scenario accurately describes Napoli. Therefore, the odds would be considered accurate, and there wouldn’t be a value bet to make.
However, if this game turns out to be quite different from the reference games you have looked at, there could be a chance for a value bet in football. Since we picked out a game and compared it to our reference games, we have completed the first step of the value betting strategy. Now, on to the next step: the analysis.
4. Game Analysis
An analysis here is simply looking closely at the two teams playing against each other and comparing the game at hand with some reference games identified in the previous step. Let’s focus on Frankfurt. Frankfurt performs well in the Bundesliga, even though their performance is often a bit mixed, with wins and losses in games. Let’s say they have a win rate of 43%, like winning 3 out of 7 away games. If you start analyzing this, you may be excited because you know Napoli’s strength, and seeing Frankfurt’s inconsistent performance may make you think that betting on Napoli is smarter.
But then, if Frankfurt has been really strong at home, winning their last four games, it explains why the betting odds are set the way they are. Now, you have to reflect on the EPL games we mentioned earlier. This match resembles the Manchester City vs. Arsenal game. This comparison seems more fitting than comparing it to other games, such as Chelsea vs. Spurs, where a strong team faces a weaker one but isn’t in great form. It feels more like the Arsenal-Man City scenario, with two similar teams, but the away team having a slight edge.
Now, with a clearer picture of the reference game, if Napoli turns out to be just a bit better than Frankfurt, similar to how Manchester City is slightly better than Arsenal, then the odds would be spot on, and there wouldn’t be any special value in betting. However, if you’ve watched Napoli several times this season, you’ll agree that it may not be the case.
Let’s say Napoli is leading Serie A and also dominating it, and is one of the standout teams this year, with players like Osimhen. With Napoli’s impressive form, there has to be something unique about Frankfurt’s recent wins for Napoli’s odds not to be lower than 2.26. So, take a closer look at Frankfurt’s form; you may find something quite revealing. Let’s say their strong performance at home isn’t as impressive as it seems. For example, during their four-game winning streak, all the teams they beat were ranked lower than them in the league, and three of these teams—Schalke, Hertha, and Hoffenheim—were among the bottom four. Basically, these are matches Frankfurt is expected to win.
When we broaden our view to consider Frankfurt’s performance at home throughout the season, it shows they often face difficulties against teams that are either at their level or higher in the league standings. Let’s say Frankfurt has suffered defeats to Wolfsburg, a team of comparable strength, as well as to top-tier teams like Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund. It shows a reflection of the EPL football games we have been looking at for comparison. The gap in quality between Napoli and Frankfurt, as suggested by the betting odds versus the actual difference we observe in the analysis, is remarkable. As such, the Arsenal vs. Manchester City game is a much tighter contest than what we expect between Frankfurt and Napoli.
5. Finding New Reference Games
Now, you have to find new reference games that match better with the actual game being focused on here. This is different from just picking reference games based on odds. Here, we try to figure out the expected value of the value bet. But first, you should take a closer look at the European performances of both teams. Since we’re comparing teams from different leagues, you should consider that one league could be tougher than the other. For example, even though Frankfurt is ranked, let’s say, 6th in the Bundesliga, this position could be more impressive if we think the Bundesliga is tougher than Serie A.
Frankfurt seems to be a notch below Tottenham, and currently, Tottenham is not as strong as Napoli. This observation leans in favor of the value bet. Napoli, on the other hand, had a stellar group stage, winning 80% of games and scoring over three goals in each of those wins. During the analysis, you may end up with one of two thoughts.
- If the game you consider betting on lines up well with the reference games you picked out in the first step, it likely means the odds are spot-on and there’s no value bet to be made. In this case, it’s best to just move on to other betting opportunities.
- However, if your analysis shows a significant difference in quality between the two teams compared to the teams in your reference game with similar odds, then there could be a value bet.
Based on all the evidence we gather from analyzing such a game, Napoli has a much better chance of winning this game than what the market predicted.
6. Determine the True Odds
Here, we’re at the stage where we need to adjust our thinking to figure out the real odds. Now, look for similar games in the past for the Frankfurt vs. Napoli football match. You can revisit old EPL odds to find games that reflect the quality gap between Frankfurt and Napoli. Very importantly, use a league you are familiar with. You should know the strengths and weaknesses of the teams to be able to use the odds of the away team in those reference games to estimate Napoli’s odds against Frankfurt.
When searching for these reference games, focus on finding a team that mirrors Napoli’s level of play. In the Premier League, Arsenal and Manchester City are the teams that come closest. Your task is to find matches where Arsenal or Manchester City faced an opponent similar to Frankfurt in quality. Look for a team competing for European spots, ideally on a good run at home but not as strong against teams of equal or higher quality. Now, your aim should be to replicate a Frankfurt vs. Napoli scenario as accurately as possible.
Among all the Premier League matches, the closest is a game between Manchester United and Manchester City. Honestly, United seems a bit too strong compared to Frankfurt, but they currently compete for European places. However, United had a better record against similar or stronger teams, unlike Frankfurt, which struggles in such matchups. Manchester City’s form entering this game is not as strong as Napoli’s against Frankfurt. With this game as a reference, it should reveal higher odds for the away team than what Napoli should have against Frankfurt, given that United is more likely to win against City than Frankfurt against Napoli.
However, the odds for the Man United vs. Man City game show that Man City has odds of 1.91, which is quite different from the 2.26 odds for Napoli to win at Frankfurt. Given Napoli’s higher likelihood of winning, the odds of 1.91 could be too generous.
Conclusion
If you follow this guide carefully, you won’t have issues finding those value bets. Remember, the initial focus of this article was answering a question: what is a value bet in sports betting? We answered this and went on to highlight a simple strategy to help you spot value bets. If you don’t want to do this manually, you can use value betting services such as OddsMonkey Rebel Betting and Trademate. Value betting can be very profitable over the long term, though it’s not without its ups and downs. But with enough volume, you can indeed make a ton of money using a value bet in football or any other sport.
